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By:Alain Walder,Beat Bernet
Published on 2013 by

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Despite a twelvefold growth over the last decade and its large contribution to improve attractiveness of the private equity asset class, little academic research has been carried out on the characteristics and drivers of the private equity secondary market. Besides gaining an understanding of the features and size of the secondary market, this paper aims at determining its historical drivers and attempts to forecast the future secondary volume over the period 2013-2016. The analysis is based on a multiple regression analysis as well as 19 interviews conducted with renowned experts in secondary private equity sphere. The private equity secondary base and lagged private equity returns explained 93.2% of the variation in the secondary volume in the last decade. However, secondary volume is principally a function of attractive pricing to the sellers. Based on the historical drivers, a decrease volume is predicted over the period 2014-2016, even though the model accounted for an increasing turnover rate. This study has contributed to future research on the topic.

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